Kansas 3rd – Brent Welder – Brent is surging in the polls and was even on CNN last night. Here is an August 4th poll that strongly favors Brent winning his primary. I place his chances of winning at 85%
Kansas 4th – James Thompson – Thompson won his primary in the special election in 2017 and nearly won the district that was heavily GOP held. He faces Laura Lombard who came in a distant 3rd in the special election primary. Thompson like Welder had the benefit of Bernie and AOC campaigning on his behalf with rallies in Kansas. He should win his primary comfortably. I place his chances of winning at 95%.
Michigan Governor's Race – Abdul El-Sayed – AES like Welder and Thompson had Bernie rallying for him. However he is in less of an advantageous position compared to the aforementioned others. His opponent is pulling in tons of cash and is currently polling anywhere from 5-10 points ahead of Abdul. I would place his chances of winning at 45%
Michigan 1st – Matt Morgan – Morgan is in a very peculiar position. He isn't even on the ballot. However NO Democrat is. He simply needs to achieve a certain threshold of write in votes, which he said (in an interview with Cenk Uygur) he is very confident he will do based on internals. I place his chances of advancing at 90%
Michigan 2nd – Robert Davidson – Robert is running unopposed in his primary. Not much else to say, other than he will be the Democratic nominee in November. His chances of winning are 100%
Michigan 6th – David Benac – David is currently the lowest funded candidate of 4 candidates in his primary. The most recent filings have him 5 times less money than 3rd, 6 times less money than 2nd, and 14 times less money than 1st. Based on this alone, in a crowded primary, I place his chances of advancing at 10%.
Michigan 11th – Fayrouz Saad – Ms. Saad is up against 3 establishment candidates which in theory sounds good for her if they split the vote. However a late July poll had her polling in 4th at 10%. I place her chances of winning at 20%.
Michigan 13th – Rashida Tlaib – Tlaib currently boasts the most fundraising money, however she is up against John Conyers Jr's great nephew. This could come into play because of the last name and familial connection. There is little polling out, but Tlaib seems to be in the thick of it. I place her chances of winning at 40%
Missouri 1st – Cori Bush – Even with the help of AOC and Nina Turner, the push may not be enough for Bush. The incumbent Dem is fairly popular and in his last primary challenge he won over 65% of the vote. Bush may pull an upset like AOC, but there is no information to accurately predict such. I place her chances of winning at 25%
Missouri 7th – Jamie Schoolcraft – I have found nothing on any of the candidates relating to polling, buzz, or any of the sort. I decided to go with purely twitter followers and Schoolcraft is in 3rd in that regard (because 1 person did not have a twitter). I will not predict this race, it's impossible based on the information.
Washington 3rd – Dorothy Gasque – Dorothy was interviewed by Cenk Uygur yesterday and commented on how a lot of her campaigning has been stonewalled on social media because of her combat photos of her prior military service. Based on what I gathered she is in the running vs the Incumbent and Carolyn Long. I place her chance of winning at 40%
Washington 7th – Pramila Jayapal – One of the few current sitting JD candidates up for reelection. She is running only against 1 other candidate, a Republican, so she will be the Democratic nominee in November. **I place her chances of winning at 100%
Washington 9th – Sarah Smith – Sarah is an excellent candidate. However she faces 2 issues in her primary. She is running against a popular Democratic incumbent and a repeat runner on the GOP side. Her problem becomes, can she take enough votes from 2 people who may already have the name recognition and foothold to place top 2 and advance to the general election. I place her chances of advancing at 30%
That's all the JD's up for election today. Remember to go vote! Hopefully all of these candidates listed win!